Final Analysis: Who Wins RuPaul's Drag Race?

It's the question we've all been asking, ourselves and each other: Who will win RuPaul's Drag Race season 5? I loved assembling my mid-season analysis post, and the more I examined this season from a statistical-records perspective, the more nuanced the question became.

1. What do past seasons' Top Four records give us?

For my purposes, I took the records for the Top Four of each previous season, as of the conclusion of the Top Four Ball challenge. I made a separate column for explicit wins, then grouped together the combined wins and top-three counts, the combined Safe and low-but-safe counts, and the number of Lip Synchs.

As we've discussed in the past, with the exception of Season 3 (where Raja and Manila finished with identical records), the queen with the most challenge wins has always won their season. It's also interesting to note that the runner-up has always had a better win/high record than the third-place finisher, even though, in every season except Season 2, the second and third place finishers had the same number of challenge wins. Finally, it's also potentially-telling to note that the fourth place finisher nearly always has the weakest record of the group, either in wins or wins/highs, if not both.

So, what does that mean for Alaska, Detox, Jinkx, and Roxxxy?

2. The next challenge is very, very important for Jinkx and Roxxxy.

Jinkx and Roxxxy are neck-and-neck at two wins each. At this point, Roxxxy will not be able to catch Jinkx in wins/highs, but that's not necessarily a deal-breaker: BeBe had a weaker win/high record against Nina, and had a lip synch where Nina didn't, and still won the crown. Their overall records are actually very close, and either of them winning the next challenge has the power to establish clear dominance.

Here's another interesting fact: look at the total wins for Top Four in the last two seasons, which had a similar number of challenges to this season. If you total the challenge wins for the Top Four, compared to the number of challenges in the season, it shakes out this way:

Season 3: 10/12 (83%)
Season 4: 10/11 (91%)
Season 5: 7/11 (64%)

In other words, this season's Top Four have fewer challenge wins among them total, which potentially makes this final challenge the most decisive Top Four episode we've ever had.

3. The next challenge is also very, very important for Alaska and Detox.

Simply put: unless one of them wins the next challenge, neither of them realistically has a shot to win the crown. If Alaska wins the next challenge, and Roxxxy does poorly, Alaska would surpass Roxxxy's record, putting her right at Jinkx's heels. Detox's slope is steeper, with few wins/highs compared to the other queens, but this challenge win would put her at two wins, same as Jinkx and Roxxxy, and solidify her legitimacy in the Top Three.

4. Could Roxxxy Andrews be America's Next Drag Superstar?

Yes. As a winner, Roxxxy is an answer to a critique often lobbed at RuPaul's Drag Race: the show doesn't cast enough bigger girls, and that the thick girls they do cast often don't represent well. Roxxxy's peanut buttery crown would be a final response to that complaint. This was also sold as the year that RuPaul's Drag Race would bring in the best of the pageant circuit, and with Alyssa and Coco gone, Roxxxy is the lone pageant queen remaining. Compared to the model-thin, artistic-conceptual queens who won Seasons 3 and 4, Roxxxy is a very different choice for the crown, and a wholly legitimate one.

And aside from the demographic bullet-points she hits, Roxxxy has done very well in this competition. If she wins the Top Four challenge, she is absolutely a contender for the crown. (Frankly, as long as Jinkx doesn't win the Top Four challenge, she's a contender.)

The only elephant in the room? For the most part, fans of RuPaul's Drag Race aren't rallying behind Roxxxy. I would hate to see it happen, but she could potentially face ugly backlash from the fanbase if she's crowned, like Tyra Sanchez faced (even though Tyra had the clear winning record of her season). Which leads us to the next question...

5. Could Jinkx Monsoon be America's Next Drag Superstar?

Yes. In two words? Fan Favorite. Like Sharon last year, the internet has fallen in love with Miss Monsoon, and if RuPaul calls for a vote, Jinkx can start spending her $100,000 now. She's been touring like a madwoman, selling out every venue she hits, and her star power, both on-screen and on-stage, has frankly already made her America's next drag superstar, even with no crown on her head. All that, plus: she currently has the winningest record, and her eight-week success streak has set a new all-time record for consecutive highs/wins.

If she wins the Top Four challenge, I would bet my life on her winning the season. If she flounders, especially if she flounders while Roxxxy wins the challenge, it becomes less clear-cut.

6. Could Alaska be America's Next Drag Superstar?

Maybe. She absolutely must win the Top Four challenge to have a chance, and even that only puts her on equal footing with Jinkx and Roxxxy. Her chances are certainly improved if either Jinkx or Roxxxy is eliminated; a Top Three with a two-win Alaska, Detox, and either of the other two is suddenly anybody's game.

And if that happens, her relationship with Sharon could very well become an asset, because Sharon has worked her tail off for RuPaul's Drag Race this past year.

What I'm about to say is crass, and very presumptuous, but here's how it is: this past year has shown us a very tailored side of Sharon Needles. She's been playing along with RuPaul's Drag Race like a champ, shilling vodka, touring non-stop, and releasing an album with a title that says, "I could be way less family-friendly." On the other hand, she's also been giving more ambivalent interviews like this:

Sharon: You start off loving to do it, but there is a point where you feel like you have to do it.
Interviewer: Will you always have to be Sharon, from time to time?
Sharon: Of course. I don't know how to do anything else. I know how to make coffee, but I like the life that I live now. But at the same time, a lot of other people rely on you to do what you do.
Interviewer: Where does Sharon draw the line, in terms of going too far?
Sharon: She doesn't know yet. I used this year, I created a concept for me which was, "Success comes from compromise." And I've watched people not be successful because they decided not to compromise.

Logo, World of Wonder, and Sharon have had each other by the leash of Alaska since Season Five was cast: Sharon has done everything she can to be a good, bankable Next Drag Superstar for the network, surely in part because Alaska is still in the running for the crown, but on the other hand, Sharon Needles doesn't need RuPaul's Drag Race to drive her success anymore. If Alaska wins, Logo keeps its Power Couple of Drag for another year. If Alaska doesn't win, Logo could potentially lose the franchise power of them both.

Or maybe they both genuinely enjoy working for Logo, and my crass presumptions are completely off-base! Time will surely tell.

7. Could Detox be America's Next Drag Superstar?

Probably not. She'll be remembered as one of the best of Season Five, but her ratio of wins/highs to safe/lows has knocked her out of the running to be called the best of Season Five. Unless Roxxxy's outfit melts off and Jinkx throws a shoe at Michelle at the next runway judging, Detox will probably finish third or fourth.

8. By the way, who's winning Miss Congeniality?

I'd said Jinkx earlier in the season, but I'm changing my tune: her dominance in the competition has won her a lion's share of fans, but with so many people certain that she's going to win the crown, she's less likely to garner Miss Congeniality votes. Instead, I think the frontrunners are likely to be Alaska, Ivy, Detox, and Alyssa.

I'll be voting for Alaska. She's earned special recognition for the way she's given her life to this show: we've been watching her audition tapes since Season One, and frankly, she's the Miss Congeniality of Seasons 4 and 5. She's been more dedicated to this show, and for longer, than any other queen this season. To be blunt, she's probably not winning America's Next Drag Superstar this year, but I don't want to see her walk away empty-handed.

And she's a sweetheart, and that counts.

Finally: Who is the winner of RuPaul's Drag Race Season 5?

Like I said, this race has become very tight, and a lot rides on the final challenge. I'm calling this now: If Jinkx, Alaska, or Detox wins the Top Four Ball challenge, Jinkx Monsoon will win RuPaul's Drag Race. If Roxxxy wins the Top Four Ball challenge, I'm not commiting to a prediction--it could genuinely go either way.

What do you think? Sound off in the comments below! Also, if you want to keep up with me, let's hook up on Twitter and Facebook. Stay tuned, darlings!

Comments

[Allegory77]

Love the analysis and thought. I'm similarly obsessed.

That being said, I cannot for a minute believe the producers, especially RuPaul, would make jackasses of themselves with a Roxxxy win.

How would they justify this queen, who's only performance talent is her repeated nasty attitude and targeting Jinkx, will do ANYTHING for the franchise and bring fans back to the show in droves for Season 6?

I'm guessing performance will DOMINATE Season 6 again. Also this morning Ru's tweets are focused on "intellectual DNA and intuitive skills".

My prediction is Detox is out this week, final three will be just like Season 4's episode, and the JINKX crowning will be on the finale/reunion. Leaving wiggle room for fans of Alaska, (Sharon), and Roxxxy to say "well they were edged out" and "those stupid Jinkx fans voted her in" instead of a top 2 insulting the eliminated third.

I could be wrong and they have a top 2 Roxxxy/Jinkx therein completing the pageant/talent narrative, tho. LOL

Re Sharon/Alaska:

I saw Sharon interview that she plans to turn her drag direction towards music. Of course, she's juiced by her debut success and hopefully knows the sophomore album is never easy nor is the year after your RPDR win. Like Dorian Corey said, as you get older you shoot a little lower. I think it may take some time for Sharon to reinvent her next year. Regardless, she'll be making a living forever in drag as much as she wants.

I'm ambivalent about the next year being majority Sharon/Alaska shows. It seems like it would pay more, but take away from Sharon's creative planning. It seems like Alaska enjoys doing some "different" drag like her shows with Jinkx doing "Cabaret" but who knows how much of that "mainstream" type of act she REALLY wants. Neither one is going to get out of the underground doing sex on stage, etc., and maybe they don't want to. I do trust that Sharon is bright and creative enough to invent something fresh even if it's to be a production company like Chad. To carry her "message" in ensemble. Or write a play or something.

Good luck finding another underground like in the 70's, though Sharon. It doesn't really exist.

[Lisa]

I agree with Allegory - I just can't see a Roxxxy win if the winner hasn't been crowned yet. In that case, it would be Jinkx all the way.

If the winner has been crowned since they finished taping (do they ever do that? This is my first full season), then it's possible it could go to Roxxxy. But let's assume for a moment that the crowning has already happened. Given the way this season has been edited, Jinkx is the clear winner, and Roxxxy is just another pageant girl with a bad attitude. Part of me thinks that there's no way Jinkx can lose this contest.

And yes, Alaska would totally be my vote for Miss Congeniality in the event of a Jinx win!

[Ertina]

Miss congeniality never lands with the queens in the top 3 (except for Nina but S1 is like a pilot season lol). It is going to be either Ivy or Alyssa. I would prefer Alyssa winning, but I see more ivy being more popular with the fanbase than Alyssa (based on FB likes and twitter followers). Other than that, Jinkx has dominated this season like maybe only Sharon dominated hers, so she winning is a non brainer.

[John Vasko]

Wow, thanks for putting all the time and effort into this for fans of the show. I agree wholeheartedly with Allegory that Roxxxy should not win. I liked her the first few episodes but only because she seemed fun and nice, not because of her wins. I was actually shocked to see her win the first episode's challenge.

I guess I don't get the whole pageant circuit aspect of drag. To me, if a drag queen isn't funny and witty, she loses me. Although she can look polished for her type of look, Roxxxy's "looks" are just rather boring. I can't remember a single one clearly from this season, whereas I can with Jinkx.

I think Alaska is terribly funny and while I would be ok with her winning, Jinkx deserves it more. That being said, I do see Sharon and Alaska as the Bill & Hillary Clinton of the drag world!

[Lisa]

Also, one other thing that I want to go back to that you (Dilettwat) said a couple of recaps ago - you'd said that the editing was definitely painting a Jinkx/Roxxxy final two, and I think so too. However, that makes me feel even more strongly that Jinkx would win. It's not only that Roxxxy hasn't been nearly as strong of a contender as Jinkx. I think the vibe we're getting from Roxxxy's fixation (for lack of a better word) on Jinkx is a very negative one. I would say that from Snatch Game going forward, nearly every talking head/confessional of Roxxxy's has been about how badly she wants to beat Jinkx or get Jinkx out of the competition, etc. There have been a couple of exceptions, i.e. the confessionals about her mother abandoning her and her sister, the "sequins" gown, etc. But aside from those? Nearly every Roxxxy confessional around the second half of the competition have been about her frustration over Jinkx.

Now, sure, that could be a lot of editing. We know that in real-life, Roxxxy has made amends to Jinkx, that they're supposedly very good friends now, and just did a show together in Orlando with Alaska. But the editing at the very least is painting a very uncomfortable picture of Roxxxy. It's not just the bitchy, unkind things Roxxxy has said. The editing is almost making us think that her head isn't in this game as much as it should be because of her fixation on beating Jinkx, rather than focusing on bringing her A-Game, regardless of who's left. That might not be the case behind the scenes, but it sure is what we're being shown.

So my thoughts are that if that's indeed what the editors want us to think? Then even in a final two situation, Roxxxy wouldn't have a prayer up against Jinkx. Because - again, just my thoughts on the matter - Ru wouldn't show such a completely unflattering portrait of Roxxxy and then crown her the winner. If it's a Roxxxy/Jinkx showdown in the final two, the sweetheart/underdog who has won over the fans in an astounding way and has dominated the the high spots would probably win the crown over the bitchy, fixated-on-one-competitor queen who's not given nearly as strong a showing throughout this competition.

I'm not good at figuring out formulas like you are, girl - and your charts and reasonings are amazing! Since I'm not mathematically/formulaically inclined, I'm just going on my gut and watching the editing - so I could be very wrong!

[eulogy]

"Ru wouldn't show such a completely unflattering portrait of Roxxxy and then crown her the winner."

Exactly. Why go to all the trouble of doing that "left at the bus stop" breakdown, and subsequent apology to Jinkx, only to revert directly back to type. And with more open vengeance?

Why? Because that's the real person.They can't edit IN things she didn't say and do - her behavior in the workroom has been just as stank if not worse.

Talk about lacking self awareness LOL. In a perfect world she'd be out before the finale and show that cover girl can't cover shade, baby.

[Yakkywakky]

Well Tyra had a bad edit and still won, so I dont know what Ru is thinking.

[Lisa]

True about Tyra, Yakkywakky, but I don't think it's happened again since? I think maybe Ru learned that someone who makes her look bad (from what I've heard about Tyra) isn't going to be good for the Ru "brand".

[epilonious]

Everything has been said and better. So I am just going to giggle at the image of Jinkxxy hurling a shoe at Michelle Visage.

[Steve Banua Sanchez]

I think that Roxxxy is the Season 5 PhiPhi.

I must admit, when this season started I thought Detox would be in at least top 3. (I live in west hollywood and have seen her live. AMAZING!) But, i am pleased with the top 3.

i'll be sad to see Alaska go :( i do think it will be a show down between Roxxxy & Jinkx

[FrouFrou]

If Roxxxy wins the world will end in a nuclear war between Jinkx fans and RuNazi invaders. WE love Jinkx... We want jinkx... We will go and get vodka to celebrate for Jinkx... We will go and get Uranium to kill Roxxxy... Jajaja!!!

[a]

I never thought I'd say it, but I'm glad that Detox went home - she peaked weeks ago and has been on a downward spiral to busted ever since. Sadly I think she became over confident, which was her ruin. Girl can throw her jaw like a boa constrictor, but that doesn't mean she should have rested on that one little quirk so often - it ended up being obvious. Still a much loved Queen though.

Roxxxy really doesn't deserve to win, despite having had some fierce moments on the runway, at this stage all I can recall is her liquorice dress, which was eclipsed by Alaska and her candyfloss. If her attitude didn't make my blood boil so much, She would be ultimately forgettable... That said, I think she has won a spot in the top three for a reason, but please dear God, MAKE SURE SHE IS THE FIRST ONE TO LEAVE.

I'm so torn between Jinkx and Alaska - they both have my heart, but at this stage I can't help but thinking that being in the bottom two so close to the final can't bode well for Jinkx. I'm not sure the Judges are ever going to see eye to eye with her on certain aspects of her schtick.

I think I'm rooting for team Alaska - she is something special.

- her attitude stinks.

I'm completely torn between Jinkx and Alaska.

[a]

Woops, major format error right there - "I think I'm rooting for team Alaska - she is something special"

That should be the end, the rest was copy and pasted from other bits!

[Shangey G.]

I'm sorry.

I'm not a fan of Jinkx.
I'm scratching my head wondering how she got to top 3.
After seeing her broke face and ugly dresses come down the runway, I'm just left speechless. In fact, I can recall one judge wondering whether her nose was prosthetic. I also think Ivy Winters must have helped her out with her eye makeup along the way. Nice to see DragRace as a "school for girls" for Jinkx.

It's almost obvious a red carpet was rolled out for Jinkx to cruise all the way to the top 3. I saw this coming weeks ago, when I realized the "season of the fish" was in fact the "season of the comedy queen", with challenge after challenge being acting or comedy. And out of all that fish, Jinks has only one competitor -- Alaska.

Jinkx has only lipsynced once, and that was with a quirky/camp song tailored for her. Let's see her lipsync to a Britney Spears song :)

I'm not a hater, but it's hard for me to sustain a belief this is a "reality" show anymore, when it's so obvious this season has had producers literally ensuring Jinkx top 3 status.

Roxxy is right -- Challenge after challenge was either comedy or acting. What if it had been dancing after dancing? Make-over after make-over? Sewing a couture dress after couture dress? 3rd episode..."Jinkx Monsoon, please sashay away".

And maybe my frustration with the show is what I have for Jinkx. If you're going to be in a real competition, you won't have any help from producers constantly giving you a leg up. I would like to believe she got into the top 3 on her own.

At the end of the day, Jinkx is not what I call an 'alpha queen' -- someone all the other girls want to be like. She isn't Raven. She isn't Chad Michaels or Sharon Needles. Omg. Wtf is she doing in the top 3??!

And I could care less about her likeability. My mom is likeable. She's also funny. And she has heart. But my mom doesn't know how to contour her makeup or tuck or lipsync.

Either Alaska or Roxxy should win. But it appears Roxxy is being painted as the next "Phi Phi Ohara", and Alaska was warned by RuPaul she "didn't have heart", so i'm bracing myself for a ....uccck [gag reflex]..... Jinkx win.

RuPaul hasn't said one bad thing about Jinkx, unlike all the other queens. Apparently broke faces, bad dresses and having some heart is what it takes to win RuPaul's drag race now. I guess even my mom can be on the show now.

Spew chunks.

[NS82]

I think with all reality shows, regardless of American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, or even with this show, have edited it to find a way for the underdog to win. A good example is the last season of American Idol where Jessica Sanchez became runner up to a guy that had talent but not as immense as hers (IMO).

I think the top 3 are appropriate and if it came down to any of those queens winning I would go for Jinkx. She has been consistent and I think has improved a lot and have taken the critiques really well. I think the queens reactions are normal, someone that has won 2 challenges and has been consistently out of the bottom 2 says a lot, but that is just me.

She reminds me of how Sharon Needles started. First with her scary drag and then you see a transition when she got critiqued and critiqued you see her become one of those Pageant Queens.

I think it can go either way. Bottom two can be between Alaska (whom has improved a lot and has also won Monday's challenge) and Roxxy, granted the next challenge where Alaska outshines both of them, which Alaska has shown.

As for Miss Congeniality it has to be, for me, Ivy Winters, Alaska, or Jinkx.

Overall, I think that if Roxxy wins then she wins, she is talented and she was edited really badly, remember who became the villain for last season? If Jinkx won then it is what is and the same goes for Alaska.

I like this show, entertaining, and opened up my mind about this type of entertainment.

[Tia C]

First off let me start by saying that your I LOVE THIS BLOG. RPDR is my absolute FAVORITE show and I love finding people who share my passion for it! I frequently look forward to your recaps and can't wait to read this week's!

I thought I would put my two cents in for fun :)

ALASKA THVNDERFVCK. Where do I begin? I adore her. She is by FAR my favorite Queen from any season - bar none. She is HILARIOUS, adorable, and she kills it in EVERY challenge (um, hello, she's never lip synced for her life!). I think she was robbed in A LOT of the challenges and should have won at least one other challenge than she has! NOT TO MENTION the skill it took to come out of Sharon Needles' shadow. She stands on her own two feet as a COMPLETELY original Queen and I respect her so much for that.

Do I think she'll win? Unfortunately, no :( Does she deserve to? ABSOLUTELY! In my opinion, she was the stand-out in pretty much EVERY challenge no matter what was thrown at her, and somehow she's managed to do all this without making enemies or by throwing shade at other Queens. In my eyes, she IS America's Next Drag Superstar!

Who DO I think will win? Jinkx Monsson. 100%. Honestly, she seems very sweet and appears to have a BIG heart which is so rare these days and I totally respect that. BUT I have never been a big fan of her DRAG but rather a fan of her personality. If it were up to me, she'd win Miss Congeniality!

As for Roxxxy Andrews? She appears to be very insecure and a lot of the things she has said are malicious and down right RUDE, but we've all said evil things about people we dislike or are jealous of, unfortunately she said those things on National television! That being said, I don't care for her but I truly believe she EARNED a spot in the top 3.

Side note: my apologies for any grammar or spelling mistakes. I have had a few glasses of wine ;)

[Mel]

after watching this season, Im torn between Alaska and Jinkx. Roxy attitude just rubs me the wrong way because i feel she's more worried about trying to beat jinkx than being on her A game to win the race. honestly speaking her outfits does seem good on the runway but i dont think she should represent the crown.

Now to me Alaska is the underdog between the three lets to she never had to lip sync if the judges disliked anything she did she would have been read for it but she stood out this whole season and felt she should have won one other challenge. Do i think she should win YESSSSSSS. She more than just sharon needles boyfriend.

Jinkx what can i say i understand the humble part of her not caring what others say or think and she still performs she my second pick for the crown i love her ambition but one thing i do encourage her to do is make the judges believe she wants the win and kill every challenge on this last episode but im expecting Alaska and Jinkx to pull all stops Roxy will bring it to but she wont get the crown in my opinion.

[Nana]

The reason Ru put a big emphasis on acting, singing and comedy, is because she WANTS a intelligent, witty versatile queen to win... Jinkx came along and nailed all the challenges (with Alaska doing just as good, for the same reasons). I think Ru has shifted her focus away from Americas next top model or project runway. I'm glad this season turned out the way it did. Roxxxy's look is predictable, but I take to heart her mantra "I've learned to love every part of my body" haha. I really hope Jinkx gets the crown, she has not been lucky she has earned every bit of it!!

[JustSaying]

Why was challenge after challenge about acting or comedy, and not make up challenge after make up challenge? Because...someone can always learn to be better at makeup...or hire a makeup artist...you can't teach TALENT. You either got it, or you don't. And Jinkx GOTS IT. Did anyone else notice that practically EVERY guest judge they had, loved Jinkx? Quite a few commented on how she's definitely got a future in the business, because they recognize her talent. Roxxy is a pretty queen, and she can even be funny if she's imitating someone funny (Tamar Braxton apparently), but left to her own devices, she's not funny. She's not a good actress, she can only be herself, and herself is kind of obnoxious and bitchy if things aren't going her way.

[Brian]

Roxxy is ''paegant pretty'' ...but boring, predictable, one note, and old hat. She can't act, she can't sing, is mean-spirited, hatefuul, and fake, fake, FAKE. Alaska is also very genuine, and I think that those qualities carry over very well. I like her style too. But ROXXY...UGH. What an awful human being. She is a contender....UNTIL SHE OPENS HER MOUTH- and garbage flies everywhere. There. I said it.

[Brian]

Oh yeah, one more thing...TEAM JINX!

[mia]

Alaska should win she never song for her life. i lov u alaska and sharon

[Mtroyalguy]

Shangey G was right. Jinkx (and I love her to death) is not an "Alpha Queen". The problem is, neither is anyone else on this season. My friends and I all noticed it, no one was a standout early in the season.
And lets face it, out of all the Queens on all the seasons, the ones you would pay to see (ok, I would pay to see, I am cheap) are the ENTERTAINERS. This season that is Jinkx and maybe Alaska (Jinkx is the triple threat though).
And I thought Alaska's final look was the MOST she has reminded me of Sharon all season!

[Adam]

Jinkx will win - watch and see.

[osimru]

Jinx should win this competition hands down. Alaska is good but none of the girls compare to the acting and comical capabilities of Jinx. Ms. Roxxy reminds me of the former winner Ms. Raj. MEAN Girl who feels Entitled assuming she is better than the rest. Makeup goes only so far. Personality goes a long way. I must say if someone other than JINX wins this competition RuPaul would lose me as a fan of this Show. It will not be the first time remember Raj. From Day 1 the judges pegged that on the winner and guess what She did. I have my doubts about that on as well. The best does not always win on this reality series. It all falls into RuPauls hand. I have looked at several polls and Jinx is ahead by a landslide with Alaska in second. So the public has spoken. Still Ru's call. Hope she does the correct thing, otherwlse a fan has been lost.